Josh Paul
Former Director, U.S. Department of State.
Senior Advisor at DAWN, (DAWN; Founded by Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, DAWN promotes democracy & human rights in the Middle East and North Africa).
https://dawnmena.org/
In 2008, when I worked in the Pentagon, one of my roles was to brief the Undersecretary on the Middle East portion of the SDOB – the Sec Def’s Orders Book, which directs out-of-cycle deployments. As we learn of U.S. plans to deploy a THAAD battery to Israel, I can picture the tab in that thick binder that will have gone forward, with its proposal for deployment, estimated cost, and likely competing perspectives from stakeholders such as the US Army, US European Command, and US Indo-pacific Command. But one thing the SDOB will not have included will have been a political assessment.
Israeli civilians, like all peoples, should not have to live under the threat of rocket fire or ballistic missiles, and on its face, THAAD provides that protection. But does it truly? As others have noted, the THAAD deployment may make Prime Minister Netanyahu more comfortable in ordering a devastating and disproportionate strike against Iran. Even if it succeeds in its tactical objectives, such a strike would be a step away from a regional settlement and lasting peace. The decision to deploy THAAD to Israel is not simply a decision to protect Israel – it is a decision to enable further military escalation. A policy that was truly in the Israeli interest would be one that used American leverage to wind down Israel’s military operations, end the occupation, and frame a pathway to a just and lasting peace.
The THAAD deployment may also have more immediate consequences, not all of them predictable. If Israel does strike Iran, Iran’s response options will have to take the THAAD and its 48-interceptor-load into account. Do they increase their missile load to overwhelm the system, utilize cruise missiles launched from nearer Israel to destroy the system first, or recalibrate their response to focus it on easier targets such as Gulf oil infrastructure (this need not be a kinetic operation – simply scuttling a large ship in the Straits of Hormuz would do measurable harm to the global economy)? Each of these options, particularly the second, also comes with increased risk of direct harm to U.S. assets and personnel, which will be a factor for Iran to carefully consider, but also means that Biden effectively using U.S. forces not only as a deterrent but also as a triggering mechanism that may draw the U.S. further into a regional conflict – and the deployment also places THAAD, whose only operational success has been against a single missile launched from Yemen into the UAE, and which is critical to the defense of Korea and the Gulf, to the test. It will likely prove very effective – but if it fails against a large-scale barrage, there will also be a weakening of its deterrent factor in and beyond the region.
For a year, faced with a wide array of alternatives, each time the Biden Administration has chosen to double-down on unconditional support for Israel. The consequences so far have been devastating for Palestinians, destabilizing for the Middle East, and damaging to America.
